The North Texas housing market is downshifting quickly, with Dallas-Fort Worth being the only U.S. market to see a decrease in home sale prices last month, according to a report released today. DFW home prices are down 1.9% year over year in July, according to the latest Re/Max National Housing Report.
And what a difference a month makes. Last month, DFW led the U.S. for home price increases, with June prices up 29.3% over the previous year. In hard numbers, home sales prices in DFW fell to $413,900 in July from $422,000 in July 2021. Homes in DFW spend an average of 23 days on the market before selling.
Higher interest rates and inflation, as well as record home prices, triggered a sharp drop in demand for housing, said Todd Luong, a realtor with Re/Max DFW Associates: "Here at our Re/Max office in Dallas-Fort Worth, our listings are currently getting on average 2.7 showings per week," Luong said. "Last year, at this same time, our listings were earning on average 5.9 showings per week. That is a huge drop in buyer demand compared to the previous year. Record home prices and higher mortgage rates have forced many potential buyers out of the market, especially first-time homebuyers."
While the latest trends may disappoint some sellers, buyers now have more choices and better opportunities for good deals, Luong said. Luong said that the DFW housing market has been challenged with low inventory for years and reached an all-time low earlier this year, with only a two-week supply. Now, however, inventory is increasing. "Although buyers have more choices now, it is still not a balanced market as we only have about a two-month housing supply," Luong said. "In a normal market, you have about a five to six-month supply of housing."
A new report from Zillow also found falling home values, although the numbers didn't match Re/Max's precisely because of different study methods and different geographic definitions of DFW as a metro area, among other reasons. According to Zillow's findings, the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area's typical home value is $396,904, down 1.1% since June, the first month of decline. Values are up 55.4% since July 2019.
Zillow also reported that the mortgage payment on a typical home in DFW is $2,633 a month, including taxes and insurance. That's up 77.4% compared to July 2019.
According to Zillow, inventory in DFW has risen 10.2% since June, and the share of listings with a price cut in July was 22%, compared to 15.6% in June. Nationwide, after two years of unprecedented growth, home values fell for the first time since 2012 as competition for houses eased, according to Zillow's July market report.
The slowdown is being driven by decreased competition among buyers. Zillow's analysis says that affordability pressures have pushed many to the sidelines, and buyers are waiting in the wings to resume their search if and when prices relax a bit. Skylar Olsen, Zillow's chief economist, called the flattening of home values "a badly needed rebalancing. This slowdown is about discouraged buyers pulling back after the affordability shock from higher rates," Olsen said. "As prices soften, many will renew their interest, and we will continue our progress back to 'normal.'"
Luong said he sees positive signs in the market. The interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped below 5% after peaking in June. More than 290,000 new jobs were added in Dallas-Fort Worth last year, so North Texas has one of the strongest labor markets in the country. "Reasonably priced homes that are in good condition and move-in ready are still selling very fast," he said. "However, the bidding wars have subsided considerably across the board."
Baldwin County Association of Realtors in Alabama will offer group health, dental and vision insurance to its 2,300 members. Other Realtor groups expected to follow suit nationwide
Earlier this month, the National Association of Realtors announced there was no national solution to affordable health care coverage for the trade group's nearly 1.4 million members. But that hasn't stopped a local Realtor association in Southern Alabama from coming up with its own solution. The Baldwin County Association of Realtors says it's the first in the nation to offer group health, dental and vision insurance to its 2,300 members. From Nov. 15 through Dec. 28, Baldwin Realtors will be able to sign up for coverage starting Feb, 1, 2019 through Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Alabama.
"Being able to offer health, dental, and vision insurance to our membership is one of the most defining accomplishments of my career," said Sheila Dodson, the association's CEO, in a statement. "Knowing that independent contractors are not able to provide for their families or themselves in this vital way has always been a difficult problem for the Realtor industry. It is great to partner with Blue Cross and Blue Shield to offer premium coverage for our members, affiliates, and their staffs."
Health insurance is a top concern for many in the real estate industry. Approximately 86 percent of Realtors in the United States are independent contractors, according to NAR, meaning that, in a land where employer-based health insurance reigns, most agents are left to fend for themselves finding health care in the open market.
According to NAR's 2018 Member Profile, 21 percent of Realtors are uninsured, 45 percent of Realtors pay for health insurance out of pocket and 30 percent are covered by a spouse or partner. Only 4 percent (salaried agents) receive health coverage through their firm.
According to Troy Wilson, 2018 president of the Baldwin County association, members had long been asking for group health insurance plans, but "until recently it was never even an option."
That changed in June, when the U.S. Department of Labor announced health care reform to modify the legal definition of "employer" to include "working owners" — i.e., self-employed individuals with no employees — and to allow small businesses and independent contractors, such as real estate agents and Realtors, to band together based on location or industry to strengthen their buying power into association health plans.
"The size of the pool was key to getting the great benefit, which needed to be 2,000 or more," Wilson said in a phone interview. The Baldwin County association did not consider teaming up with another trade association, local Realtor association, the state Realtor association or NAR on this due to the logistics that would be involved, according to Wilson.
It was a "high priority" for the Baldwin association to be able to offer an AHP to its members for the beginning of the year and if the association tried to grow its pool, "we knew it would take longer," he said. "It's no different than a consideration of a new software system. It's not like anything like this exists anywhere out there. Someone needed to organize it," Wilson said.
"We would be open to other options like this in the future," he added. "Our assumption is that others are probably working on it too."
Asked whether Baldwin Realtors' was indeed the first Realtor association to offer group health insurance and whether there were any updates to a possible national solution, NAR spokesperson Jane Dollinger said in an emailed statement:
"NAR has long been advocating for health insurance solutions for real estate professionals, including association health plans. Legal uncertainty brought on by the pending lawsuit filed by a dozen attorneys general across the country, combined with varying state regulatory requirements currently makes it difficult to find and develop a national insurance option because of how such plans may be implemented and treated in each state," she said.
"However, this means there has been broader success by state and local associations, such as through small group market options, association health plans or other insurance solutions. More success at the state and local levels will set the example for others to follow and lay the foundation for a potential national solution down the road."
Under the reform, association health plans are to be governed by the same rules as private employer policies, not Affordable Care Act (a.k.a. Obamacare) rules, which means potentially cheaper coverage than what's available in the ACA marketplace, but also potentially weaker protections. This is why a dozen state attorneys general have sued the Trump administration in an effort to block the reform. They are afraid the cheaper, leaner plans will siphon off younger, healthier consumers from the ACA markets and that the new rule will lead to a spike in insurance fraud and insolvencies, according to Modern Healthcare.
The plans available to Baldwin Realtors, however, are ACA-compliant and cover the essential health benefits under the ACA, including prescription drugs, maternity care, and mental health and drug treatment. Members will also not be barred or charged more for pre-existing conditions, Wilson said. "It is compliant. It covers everything. It offers the same coverage as if someone were to do open enrollment through Blue Cross [and] Blue Shield. All we're doing is facilitating the group," Wilson said.
The association's health plans are potentially better for some members than individual or small group plans available through ACA exchanges because they may be cheaper overall and age won't be a factor in cost, according to Wilson. "The only condition to be allowed in the group coverage is you have to be a member of the association in good standing. There's no health screening or anything like that. Everyone is charged the exact same," regardless of age, gender, location, or job title, Wilson said. Affiliate members of the association — i.e. members who are not real estate licensees, such as mortgage brokers — are also eligible to participate, Wilson added.
Tim Hudnall, district account representative at Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Alabama, confirmed that Baldwin's AHP was ACA compliant and that all essential benefits are covered. "That's all we sell," he said. Asked whether the Baldwin association had to go through the state to create the AHP, Wilson said no, but that the trade group did hire a third-party vendor — Lockard & Williams Insurance Services Inc. — to supply a secure portal for enrollment and handle billing. "That way the member is never compromised on any personal information and the association never has access to any information," Wilson said.
What are the costs?
The Baldwin association offers two health plans, one with a $3,000 deductible annually that starts at $437 per month for an individual and one with a $500 deductible annually that starts at $525 per month for an individual.
Each of the two plans offer four coverage options: individual, individual and spouse, individual and a dependent, or full family coverage. For family coverage the deductibles go up to $6,000 and $1,000 respectively. The deductible does not apply to office visits, annual wellness exams or prescriptions. Vision and dental coverage can be purchased separately. "If you're only covering one person, it's $525 for one person, if you and a spouse it's maybe $100 more and then if a full family it's probably like $1,100. But there's no differentiation between member to member," Wilson said.
The association is not subsidizing any of the plans and both are under Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Alabama. "The other real benefit in group coverage is with a larger group you tend to have a more sustained premium year over year. You typically don't get as much fluctuation in the premiums," Wilson said.
The association is not sure how many of its members are uninsured. Nonetheless, Wilson believes the AHP will offer "a large portion of the association" a better option than what they have now. "There are some people that have group coverage through a spouse or through another employer. For them those other options are going to be better," Wilson said.
"But for roughly 40 or 45 percent of the association, this would be a better plan for them. Most importantly, it's going to allow coverage for some people that never had an option before from an affordability standpoint."
He knows of one member who has said the AHP will save him nearly $12,000 a year with better coverage. In his own case, Wilson currently has a Blue Cross and Blue Shield family plan and said he will save $2,340 annually on the new AHP plan and his deductible will be lower. Providing group health insurance benefits is going to be life changing for many of our members and their families," Wilson said in a statement. "This type of benefit, when utilized, can deliver value daily that is impossible to fully quantify. I'm am very proud to be a part of the leadership team who assisted in this monumental initiative."
Blue Cross and Blue Shield's Hudnall said there was "no way" to compare the Baldwin association's AHP costs to the cost of purchasing insurance through an ACA exchange because on the exchange, costs are based on an individual's age, while in the AHP, the cost is based on the average age of the members as a whole. Wilson said the AHP is written for an average age of 57 based on a census of the association, but he's not sure if that reflects the actual average age of the membership. (The median age of Realtors overall is 54, according to NAR's 2018 Member Profile.)
For younger people, costs would probably be lower on the ACA exchange, Hudnall said, while for older people he expected the AHP to be "pretty competitive." After seeing some of the insurance renewal letters the Baldwin association shared, Hudnall said, "This seems like it's going to save some of the folks over there a lot of money."
Anticipating 'a lot of activity'
Other Realtor associations are likely to follow Baldwin's lead. Hudnall said Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Alabama has been offering quotes to other Realtor associations and other trade associations in the state, but he's not sure if any others have signed up. "This is really new. I know it's something that's going to have a lot of activity. I imagine there will be more pretty soon," he said.
Because associations don't have information on prior insurance claims to submit, then demographics — including age — are a portion of the consideration for the premium, according to Hudnall. Groups with more older folks, such as Realtor associations, would typically be charged more than a trade association with younger members. "Older people tend to spend a little bit more in medical care," he said. The company aims to sign up close to 500 members in an AHP. "The more people in the plan the better stabilized it will be going forward," Hudnall said.
Inman News, November 21, 2018